2005-03-12

War myths

Training
Military-Industrial Complex (influence of)
War for Oil?





















Training


Various media, political, and think-tank figures
have been claiming that the (or at least a) critical requirement
for American success in various Third-World regions,
in particular, Afghanistan and Iraq, is
training indigenous armed forces.
Michael O’Hanlon always seems to emphasize this,
as in late 2009 has Senator Carl Levin with respect to
building a native Afghan armed force.
The claim, implicit if not explicit, seems to be that
if the West could just get sufficient qualified trainers to Afghanistan,
and put sufficiently many Afghans through a competent training regime,
that those forces could “take back Afghanistan” from the Taliban.


The point that never seems to be made is that
training, by and large, merely provides technical skills.
Just because an Afghan has been trained by NATO doesn’t mean that
he wants to fight for NATO.
He may well, once trained,
take his knowledge and defect to the forces that he has favored all along.
Or, even worse,
he may stay in the armed forces of what he views as a puppet state,
but only to send intelligence on upcoming operations to the guerillas.
In Vietnam, the ARVN was riddled with such agents for “Charlie.”

Thus the underlying question is:
How many Afghans want to fight for the sort of regime
that would be acceptable to the American PC “elite”?





The article “Something for Nothing” by Nir Rosen asks:
“If I take drug dealers and gangbangers from the streets of D.C.
to an eight-week program
and then put them back in the same environment,
can we expect it to change their activities?”
one skeptical COIN expert working on Afghanistan asked....
The expert,
whose government employment bars him from making public comments, added,
“If the corrupt force is the problem, why put twice as many police out there?”




2015-11-02:
I posted the above remarks back in 2010.

A 2015-11-01 Michael Scheuer post surveyed the situation to that date.
I think the part italicized below (my italics, not Scheuer's)
is an expansion of what I said above.

2015-11-01-Scheuer-on-inadequacy-of-training
U.S. general officers seem clearly unacquainted with truth and reality
by Michael Scheuer
non-intervention.com, 2015-11-01

...

Training Foreigners:
Those advancing this idea are merchants of idiocy, cowardice, and America’s defeat.
The U.S. military has proven beyond doubt’s fabled shadow
that they cannot train Muslims who have no desire —
indeed, they have an aversion —
to fighting and dying for
either Washington’s fundamentally pagan foreign-policy goals
or, in the case of Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis,
to regain the pleasure of being ruled by murderous Shia regimes.

[Actually, the point is that training and motivation
are totally independent aspects of a person.
As I mentioned above, you can train a person all you like,
but you can't control what he will do with that training.]

Yemenis, Afghans, Syrians, Iraqis, and Kurds,
all have been trained thoroughly and expensively by U.S. forces
and none of them have fought worth a lick.
At their best,
the U.S.-trained foreigners have proven to be
a completely reliable and speedy medium
for transferring massive quantities of modern U.S. arms and ordnance
to the mujahedin.
Overall, the U.S. military’s training of Muslim foreigners
has increased the Islamists’ strategic advantage
through their defection to AQ and IS as already trained fighters,
by depleting the U.S. military budget,
and by necessitating the reintroduction or retention of U.S. forces —
as today in Iraq/Syria and Afghanistan —
to prevent the collapse of U.S. trained-and-armed militaries and their governments.
The training tack does not produce any chump change at all, it is all loss.

...












The so-called military-industrial complex

Elements of the left continue to try to pin responsibility for
America’s “Long War” with elements of the Islamic world
on the so-called military-industrial complex.
I think that is fundamentally inaccurate.
Here is part of the reason why.

Surely the Washington Post editorial page
has consistently argued for military intervention in the Islamic world.
For some examples of its argumentation, see
WP prewar editorials on Iraq” and
Washington Post's Foreign Policy”.
Yet that editorial page consistently argues against
projects favored by the high-tech defense industry.
Projects they have opposed include:
For the Air Force, continued production of the F-22 fifth-generation fighter.
For the Army, the Crusader field artillery system.

Due to these, and many similar examples, it hardly seems creditable to consider the Washington Post a part of the “military-industrial complex.”
Yet, as pointed out above, they have consistently and strongly argued for
the most hawkish positions, whether Bush-43 or Obama-44 was president.
So to explain this,
we might look for reasons other than support for the defense industry.
What else does the Post consistently argue for?
Well, they certainly are strident supporters of
both the “Israel right or wrong” policies of the Zionists and feminism.
Feminists have surely been vocal in their opposition to
many elements of the way conservative Muslim men have treated their women.
Not all, but some Zionists have argued for need to fight “World War IV”,
based on a rationale which looks suspiciously like
desire to take the pressure off of Israel
to make a just and lasting peace with the Palestinians.



Yes, there really is a “military-industrial complex”,
but the projects it would like to build are being steam-rollered by
the needs of the PC-driven wars of PC-aggression.
For example:
a replacement for the Ohio class ballistic missile submarines.

The sad fact is, because of the needs of
the feminist- and Zionist-driven wars the U.S. is and has been engaged in,
the need to upgrade our weaponry has been sadly underfunded.



For more examples of how the Obama administration
is refusing to replace the aging high-tech weapon systems from the Reagan era,
see
Dr. Gates' cure for 'next war-itis'
by Jed Babbin, the Washington Examiner, 2010-04-28















War for oil?


2007-09-17-HP-Weissman
Greenspan, Kissinger: Oil Drives U.S. in Iraq, Iran
by Robert Weissman
Huffington Post, 2007-09-17


2008-08-29-Weiss-China
So Much for the 'War for Oil'
by Philip Weiss
Mondoweiss, 2008-08-29





2009-12-13-WP-Londono-US-firms-lag-in-bids-for-oil
U.S. firms lag in bids for Iraqi oil

Russians, Europeans and Chinese
win most contracts for developing major fields

By Ernesto Londoño
Washington Post, 2009-12-13

[Leading up to the 2003 war with Iraq, and for at least five years thereafter,
the leading theory on the loony-toon left (is there any other?)
and in some libertarian quarters was that
the U.S. wanted to invade Iraq so it could control and profit from its oil.
(Google War for Oil)
Such articles would always note pointedly that
Iraq had the second-largest reserves of oil in the world;
many on the left are so conditioned to thinking
the entire U.S. foreign policy is motivated by economic reasons
that that fact in itself is sufficient to prove to their fervid little minds
the U.S. must be in it for the oil.
(Of course they always can find some economic scapegoat
for the U.S. foreign policies they wish to criticize;
Afghanistan is not exactly rich in natural resources, except for poppy fields,
so now they are trying to pin the forever Afghan war on the MIC.)
Economic determinism has always been a big favorite on the left,
especially on the Jewish left.
Of course all this economic rationalizing is intended to enable them
to avoid assigning responsibility for the war to either Jews or feminists,
which represent either their own clan or
the people they must appease and certainly never anger.

(It is interesting to note that Henry Kissinger and Alan Greenspan, both Jews,
have claimed that conquering Iraq was to gain control of its oil reserves;
cf. Greenspan here, both here.
One can only suspect this is part of a conspiracy to distract attention from
Israel's well-known and well-documented desire for that war.)

Anyhow, articles such as the one cited above,
along with lots of others showing the reality of who will profit from Iraq’s oil,
show what a crock all that left-wing lying was.
But what else is new?]






2009-12-29-WP-Lukoil-in-Iraq
Lukoil-led group signs deal for prized Iraqi oilfield
By Ahmed Rasheed and Richard Solem
Reuters/Washington Post, 2009-12-29

[Yet more evidence that the “war-for-oil” crowd was full of you-know-what.
Of course, when they’re not making up stories to explain the big issues,
they’re lying their heads off about the politically incorrect.]




2010-07-02-WP-US-companies-hold-back
Risk-tolerant China investing heavily in Iraq as U.S. companies hold back
By Leila Fadel and Ernesto Londoño
Washington Post, 2010-07-02

...

[A]s the U.S. military draws down and Iraq opens up to foreign investment,
China and a handful of other countries
that weren’t part of the “coalition of the willing”
are poised to cash in.
These countries are expanding their foothold beyond Iraq’s oil reserves --
the world’s third largest --
to areas such as construction, government services and even tourism,
while
American companies show little interest in investing here.

“The U.S. really doesn’t know what to do in Iraq,”
said Fawzi Hariri, Iraq’s industry minister.
“I have been personally, as the minister of industry,
trying to woo U.S. companies into Iraq.
There is nothing yet. Nothing tangible.”

...

“I think Americans are fed up,” [French Ambassador Boris Boillon] said.
“There is Iraq fatigue in the U.S.
When you tell an American:
‘You can go to Iraq and make business, because there are opportunities,’
the guy thinks twice and says,
‘Oh, Iraq -- that bloody country.’ ”

[“War for oil.”
Right, left-wing lying dumb shits.
What’s next from you liars?]




2013-06-03-NYT-china-reaps-biggest-benefits-of-iraq-oil-boom
China Is Reaping Biggest Benefits of Iraq Oil Boom
By TIM ARANGO and CLIFFORD KRAUSS
New York Times, 2013-06-03

...

Notably, what the Chinese are not doing is complaining. Unlike the executives of Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil, the Chinese happily accept the strict terms of Iraq’s oil contracts, which yield only minimal profits. China is more interested in energy to fuel its economy than profits to enrich its oil giants.

Chinese companies do not have to answer to shareholders, pay dividends or even generate profits. They are tools of Beijing’s foreign policy of securing a supply of energy for its increasingly prosperous and energy hungry population. “We don’t have any problems with them,” said Abdul Mahdi al-Meedi, an Iraqi Oil Ministry official who handles contracts with foreign oil companies. “They are very cooperative. There’s a big difference, the Chinese companies are state companies, while Exxon or BP or Shell are different.”

China is now making aggressive moves to expand its role, as Iraq is increasingly at odds with oil companies that have cut separate deals with Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region. The Kurds offer more generous terms than the central government, but Iraq and the United States consider such deals illegal.

Late last year, the China National Petroleum Corporation bid for a 60 percent stake in the lucrative West Qurna I oil field, a stake that Exxon Mobil may be forced to divest because of its oil interests in Iraqi Kurdistan. Exxon Mobil, however, has so far resisted pressure to sell, and in March the Chinese company said it would be interested in forming a partnership with the American company for the oil field.

If the United States invasion and occupation of Iraq ended up benefiting China, American energy experts say the unforeseen turn of events is not necessarily bad for United States interests. The increased Iraqi production, much of it pumped by Chinese workers, has also shielded the world economy from a spike in oil prices resulting from Western sanctions on Iranian oil exports. And with the boom in American domestic oil production in new shale fields surpassing all expectations over the last four years, dependence on Middle Eastern oil has declined, making access to the Iraqi fields less vital for the United States.

At the same time, China’s interest in Iraq could also help stabilize the country as it faces a growing sectarian conflict.

“Our interest is the oil gets produced and Iraq makes money, so this is a big plus,” said David Goldwyn, who was the State Department coordinator for international energy affairs in the first Obama administration. “Geopolitically it develops close links between China and Iraq, although China did not get into it for the politics. Now that they are there, they have a great stake in assuring the continuity of the regime that facilitates their investment.”

...

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2005-03-01

The hucksters of health care "reform"
























The Health Insurance/Auto Insurance False Analogy


As of July 2009,
one of the argments for a government mandate that
all Americans be required to have health care insurance
is to claim that:

Such a mandate is merely analogous to
the requirement that
automobile drivers must have auto insurance
before they can drive an automobile.

For example,
Ceci Connally writes in a front page story in the 2009-07-22 Washington Post

Just as drivers must purchase auto insurance,
the medical system of the future would put
responsibility for health coverage first and foremost on every adult.


First problem with Ms. Connolly’s writing here, and throughout the article:
What she glibly and imprecisely calls “auto insurance”
is really automobile liability insurance (cf.).
Note that
nowhere in Ms. Connolly’s 1200 word article
does the word “liability” even appear!


After noting that fact, we see that
this analogy is only correct in that
both are examples of
the government mandating insurance on a class of citizens.
What the “analogy” fails to note is the crucial fact:

The reason why
automobile liability insurance
is required in order to drive a car.


That reason is quite simple:
Anyone driving an automobile may cause great damage to
the life and property of other people.

Take this all too conceivable example:
Suppose a person with essentially no net worth
gets into his or her jalopy, roars off down the road,
and rams into a vehicle carrying a family:
a father, mother, and three pre-school children.
As a result of this tragic event, both parents die.
The three children are left orphans,
deprived of the future earning-power of their now deceased parents
which would otherwise have paid for their future needs.
Who is going to pay for those future needs?
Obviously,
it should be the person who is directly responsible for making them orphans,
the driver of the vehicle which caused the accident.
But again, he may quite simply
not have the income or wealth to provide for their needs.

Precisely to account for this type of situation,
the government mandates that drivers carry liability insurance.
The driver who caused the accident would be found liable,
and his liability policy would pay the victims,
up to the lesser of their needs and its limits.

So, to repeat, the requirement to carry liability insurance is
to protect others from harm that the policy holder may cause.

Now, where is the analogy with health insurance?
Health insurance only covers the policy holders own personal needs,
or that of his family.
In general, if his health fails,
that only causes harm to himself and his dependents,
not to arbitrary people in the general public.

So where is the analogy?
There is none, except for the fact that they are both government mandates.
But that analogy is applicable to any government mandate,
and so can be used to argue for any new government mandate.
With that in view, the analogy becomes so broad as to be obviously specious.
(Obvious except to those terminally mentally ill people who keep arguing for ever-increasing government spending on social programs.)


















2009-07-22-Connolly-health-auto-insurance
Like Car Insurance, Health Coverage May Be Mandated
A Proposed Requirement That All Americans Have Policies
Has Broad Support Among Reformers

By Ceci Connolly
Washington Post, 2009-07-22

[Nowhere in this 1200 word, 31 paragraph article
does Ceci Connolly mention the crucial difference between
the existing mandate for automobile liability insurance and
the proposed mandate for health insurance:
That automobile liability insurance
protects other people from the damage the policy holder may cause to them,
while health insurance only protects the interests of the policy holder.

This is a crucial distinction,
and it really has to be considered journalistic malpractice that
neither Ceci nor her editors bothered to point it out.
But that really is not surprising:
Much of the media is obviously only interested in serving as cheerleaders
for ever-rising spending on “health care.”]


[1]
President Obama’s dream of dramatically remaking the nation’s health-care system is still a long way from reality. But if lawmakers can reach an accord, one thing is virtually certain: For the first time ever, every American would be required to carry health insurance.

[2]
The requirement, known as an individual mandate, is among the most far-reaching changes envisioned this year by those pushing for health-care reform. And it is one of the few common threads running through all three bills being considered in Congress, greatly increasing the likelihood it will survive the legislative process. Obama continued Tuesday to push lawmakers struggling with the large costs and scope of health legislation to move forward, pronouncing reform to be “closer than ever.”

[3]

Just as drivers must purchase auto insurance,
the medical system of the future
would put responsibility for health coverage
first and foremost on every adult.

[For why that “Just as” represents an invalid analogy, see the discussion above.]

[4]
For the vast majority of Americans who have health insurance, the change would mean little more than submitting a form with their tax returns proving that the plan they carry meets certain minimum standards. Many of the nation’s 47 million uninsured people, however, would be required to purchase a health policy or face financial penalties, though waivers or discounts would be provided for lower-income Americans.

[5]
The concept is modeled after a requirement instituted in Massachusetts three years ago as part of that state’s broad health-care overhaul. And like the Massachusetts law, the individual mandate proposed by congressional Democrats would be paired with a much more controversial new requirement that nearly every employer contribute to the total cost of care.

[6]
“Without an individual mandate, you’re never going to get to universal coverage,” said Bradley Herring, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University.

[7]
Bringing everyone into the insurance pool -- particularly young, healthy customers -- spreads the risk and lowers overall costs. “That will make it more affordable for everyone,” Herring said.

[8]
Some proponents of a European-style, nationalized single-payer approach say an individual mandate places an unfair financial burden on lower-income consumers. Some conservative analysts argue that such a requirement forces individuals into an overpriced, underperforming health system.

[9]
Yet in a nation that prides itself on having freedom of choice, it is striking that such a wide and diverse coalition has formed around the individual mandate. Labor unions, economists, the medical industry, big business, some prominent Republicans and Obama all support the requirement, which has its roots in the conservative philosophy of self-reliance.

[10]
In the debate over Massachusetts’s measure, then-Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican with presidential aspirations, touted the approach as a “personal responsibility system.”

[11]
Hospitals, insurers and drug manufacturers -- salivating at the prospect of up to 50 million newly insured customers -- have lobbied ferociously for the federal provision.

[12]
Obama, after sparring last year with his Democratic presidential primary opponents over the concept, is a convert, as long as there are “hardship exemptions” for those least able to pay.

[13]
“I was opposed to this idea because my general attitude was, the reason people don’t have health insurance is not because they don’t want it, but because they can’t afford it. And if you make it affordable, then they will come,” he said in a recent interview with CBS. “I’ve been persuaded that there are enough young, uninsured people who are cheap to cover, but are opting out. To make sure that those folks are part of the overall pool is the best way to make sure that all of our premiums go down.”

[14]
Nearly one-third of the uninsured in the United States in 2007 were between the ages of 19 and 29, and 42 percent were between 30 and 54, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. A fair number of young, healthy workers choose not to purchase insurance, believing they do not need it.

[15]
Advocates of universal coverage want to lure that group into the insurance pool because they tend to use fewer medical services and help keep premiums down. If only the sick buy coverage, premiums will be high. And visits to emergency rooms by uninsured patients increase premiums for the insured -- by $1,000 per person per year, according to some estimates.

[16]
The Massachusetts experience with an individual mandate has provided a model, as well as some unexpected results.

[17]
“Massachusetts changed everything in the policy community and the political arena,” said Karen Ignagni, president of the industry group America’s Health Insurance Plans.

[18]
The penalty for Massachusetts residents who do not carry health insurance was $220 in late 2007 and rose to about $1,020 this year. Still, relatively few residents have balked at the idea -- and an additional 432,000 people have signed up for health coverage.

[19]
Today, less than 3 percent of Bay State residents lack health insurance, compared with about 16 percent nationwide.

[20]
Out of the 3.9 million people who filed taxes in Massachusetts in 2008, 86,000 paid the penalty, and 71,000 were exempted because they did not meet the minimum income levels.

[21]
One of the great surprises is how many more people -- an additional 148,000 -- have enrolled in plans offered through the workplace, most likely nudged by the individual mandate.

[22]
“It’s worked out better than I would have guessed,” said MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, who serves on the board of the Massachusetts program. “We didn’t anticipate the increase in employer-sponsored insurance.”

[23]
Last year, the average price nationwide for health insurance purchased through an employer was $12,680 for a family plan and $4,700 for an individual, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

[24]
In Congress, lawmakers are weighing slightly different proposals. A bill being debated in the House this week would charge individuals a penalty of 2.5 percent of income above $9,000, up to the price of the average premium sold nationwide. The fines would begin in 2013.

[25]
A bill passed by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee last week would set the penalty at $750 per person. Individuals earning less than 150 percent of the poverty level, or about $16,245, would be exempt.

[26]
Negotiations are continuing in the Senate Finance Committee, where Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) has argued for months that an individual mandate is central to achieving Obama’s goal of near-universal coverage and cost controls.

[27]
Stuart Butler, a vice president at the conservative Heritage Foundation, agrees that bringing everyone -- especially young, healthy patients -- into the risk pool would be advantageous.

[28]
But he advocates beginning with a voluntary “opt out” approach similar to automatic enrollment programs for retirement accounts. If policies are reasonably priced, he expects that few will turn down the coverage.

[29]
The challenge, said Butler and experts in Massachusetts, is designing a basic benefits package that is affordable. Writing a law that requires individuals to purchase something they cannot afford is “inhumane,” Herring said.

[30]
When Massachusetts approved its individual mandate, proponents of the new law braced for a modern-day Tea Party. It never materialized.

[31]
“I don’t see people revolting over having to have a driver’s license or insurance to drive a car,” Gruber said. “And we haven’t seen it with the mandate.”




















2010


2010-03-23-NYT-Medicare-off-table-for-deficit-reduction
Next Big Issue? Social Security Pops Up Again
By JACKIE CALMES
New York Times, 2010-03-23

WASHINGTON —

[1]
Now that landmark legislation overhauling the health insurance system
is about to become law,
addressing Social Security’s solvency
could well become the next big thing
for President Obama and Congressional Democrats.

[2]
Central to the health care changes are
hundreds of billions of dollars in reductions in Medicare spending over time
and expansions of Medicaid.

As some administration officials acknowledge,

that effectively
takes those fast-growing entitlement programs off the table
for deficit reduction

just as Mr. Obama’s bipartisan commission to reduce the mounting national debt
gets to work.

...

[Note that the New York Times is front-paging, above the fold, that crucial fact
only after the bill was passed.
That is how the liberal media, notably the Times and Washington Post,
manipulated the news to ensure that this giant expansion of health care
would come into law:
They either withheld or down-played
the costs and drawbacks the bill would impose upon the nation,
while they highlighted
all the supposed benefits it would give the average American.

It’s exactly the same game they played in manipulating America into the Iraq War:
play-up and highlight all the supposed benefits of invading Iraq
(find and eliminate all those weapons of mass destruction!)
while ignoring or shoving to the margins the costs of invading Iraq.]

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