For historical comparisons that are all too relevant, see
<i>The Sleepwalkers:
How Europe Went to War in 1914</i>
by Christopher Clark
<I>The War That Ended Peace:
The Road to 1914</I>
by Margaret MacMillan (a great -granddaughter of David Lloyd George)
and the first chapters of
<i>The Guns of August</i>
by Barbara W. Tuchman
IMO, Ukraine is playing the role Serbia played in 1914.
There are clear differences in their situations,
but the similarity is that,
in each case,
great powers neared, or are nearing, war
over something that was (or is),
for one or more powers,
utterly peripheral to their central interests.
For news articles and other commentary, see:
2022-10-12
Newsweek: Exclusive: As Ukraine Gets Closer to Victory, Nuclear War Gets Closer Too.
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-ukraine-gets-closer-victory-nuclear-war-gets-closer-too-1751084
"Putin has now fully demonstrated that he has no regard for our values or principles,"
a second senior military officer said.
"What would drive him to use nuclear weapons,
not what would satisfy some Washington pundit,
is the question we should be seized with."
All the officials agreed that pontification by U.S. officials over the consequences from the use of nuclear weapons misses the main point of deterring their use.
They called for a clearer articulation of a nuclear-deterrence message,
while finding a way for Putin to avoid any feeling that he has no choice but to utilize them.
------
2022-10-24
Reuters: Russia hits Ukraine homes, evacuates Kherson, warns of escalation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-ukraine-homes-evacuates-kherson-warns-escalation-2022-10-24/
Oct 23 (Reuters) - Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told his French counterpart in a telephone call on Sunday that the situation in Ukraine was rapidly deteriorating and
<b>trending towards "uncontrolled escalation".</b>
2022-12-09
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-says-one-missile-trigger-hundreds-warheads-stark-message-nuclear-deterrence
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday once again drew international attention when he warned that if even one missile enters Russian territory, "hundreds" of warheads will respond.
"I assure you, after the early warning system receives a signal of a missile attack, hundreds of our missiles are in the air," Putin said from a summit in Kyrgyzstan, Russian news outlet RIA reported. "It is impossible to stop them."
"There will be nothing left of the enemy, because it is impossible to intercept a hundred missiles. This, of course, is a deterrent — a serious deterrent," he added.
...
"What this was, from the intelligence standpoint, is 'strategic messaging,'" she said, adding that Putin’s comments signaled that "Russia may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if the US/NATO continue to provide weapons to Ukraine — especially those that Ukraine can use to strike deep into Russia proper."
...
"Based on the existing Russian doctrine, Russia can respond with nuclear strikes, because Engels airbase is the home to nuclear-capable bombers that are considered strategic assets, worthy of defending with nukes," Koffler explained.
..
"There’s no question that Russia and the U.S. are climbing an escalatory ladder in Ukraine, which may end up in Putin’s use of nuclear weapons," she told Fox News Digital. "Neither side wants to end up in a direct conflict, but they are climbing this ladder unintentionally due to the misunderstanding of each other’s posture."
"Both sides are betting that the other one will blink first," she added.
------
2023-01-19
Larry Johnson
WESTERN ESCALATION THREATENS TO WIDEN WORLD WAR III
https://sonar21.com/western-escalation-threatens-to-widen-world-war-iii/
<B>World War III has started.</b>
I hope that more Americans are starting to understand that
<B>the war in Ukraine is not a battle between the forces of Kiev and the forces of Moscow.
Ukraine is a mere proxy.
<I>>Russia is fighting NATO</I></b>
and Russia fully understands this.
Russia realizes it confronts an existential threat
and is conducting itself accordingly.
..
[R]ecent decisions by the U.S. and NATO countries
to send more weapons and vehicles to Ukraine in a desperate bid to stave off Ukraine’s defeat on the battlefield
risks a dramatic expansion of the conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine.
...
Russia is prepared for the possibility that Ukraine, with the encouragement of the U.S. and NATO,
will launch an attack on Moscow with missiles or drones supplied by the West.
If that happens, then that will mark a terrible watershed for an escalation in this war.
If or when a US or European munition hits a target in Crimea or Moscow,
Russia will ratchet things up and will likely go after US or European targets in Ukraine.
Depending on the severity of the attack,
I believe that Russia would be ready to hit bases in Poland or Germany being used to train Ukrainian forces.
-----------
2023-01-22
https://www.politico.eu/article/top-russia-official-vyacheslav-volodin-threatens-west-with-global-catastrophe-over-weapons-to-ukraine-war/
Top Russia official threatens West with <b>‘global catastrophe’</b> over weapons to Ukraine
The chairman of Russia’s lower house invoked the use of nuclear weapons in a social media post.
In his Telegram post, Russia’s Volodin said:
“With their decisions,
Washington and Brussels are leading the world to a terrible war …
foreign politicians making such decisions need to understand that this could end in a global tragedy that will destroy their countries.”
It’s not the first time that top Russian politicians threaten a nuclear escalation.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has invoked the use of nuclear weapons more than once since the outbreak of the conflict 11 months ago.
----
2023-01-24
CNN
CNN: The Doomsday Clock reveals how close we are to total annihilation.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/world/doomsday-clock-2023-climate-scn/index.html
On Tuesday [2023-01-24], the clock was set at 90 seconds until midnight —
the closest to the hour it has ever been,
...
Midnight represents the moment at which we will have made Earth uninhabitable for humanity.
------
2023-02-02
BBC: Ukraine war: 80 years on, we are facing German tanks again - Putin.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64502504
Speaking in Volgograd - the modern name for Stalingrad -
Mr Putin hinted that he could seek to move beyond conventional weapons.
"Those who hope to defeat Russia on the battlefield do not understand, it seems, that a modern war with Russia will be very different for them," the 70-year-old leader said.
"We are not sending our tanks to their borders, but we have the means to respond.
It won't be limited to the use of armoured hardware.
Everyone must understand this."
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to elaborate on Mr Putin's comments, but did tell reporters that
"as new weapons are delivered by the collective West,
Russia will make greater use of its potential to respond".
