2022-06-28

How to end the Ukraine conflict

It is now 2022-06-28.
The conflict in Ukraine, and the sanctions the West has imposed on Russia, have now been going on for over four months.
The damage to both Ukraine and the West has been enormous
(notably, 
damage to the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, 
increased inflation in the West, 
food shortages and possible famine in parts of the world, 
a huge setback in the fight against global warming caused by the increased reliance on coal to make up for not using Russian natural gas
see, e.g.,
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/power-switch/2022/06/28/doubts-reign-on-russian-oil-price-cap-00042758 
"Russia’s military assault on Ukraine is wreaking havoc on energy markets, dragging U.S. and European leaders into an economic quagmire that is upending plans to address climate change." ). 

It's way past time for leaders, especially Western leaders, to stop talking about "victory" 
and start talking about how to end this conflict on mutually acceptable terms.

The way to do this is quite traditional.
The leaders of both the West and Russia need to assign diplomats (traditionally called "Sherpas" when in this role) to hammer out terms.
In particular, the West must accommodate some of Putin's terms (those I am familiar with don't sound unreasonable to me).
After a deal is agreed upon, then the top leaders can meet to ratify, and sign, the agreement.

There need to be some adults in the room
who are cognizant of the costs of not doing the above.
Costs not just to the current generation, but also to the next
(costs both financial and in global warming).

(For a somewhat technical view of some financial costs to some, see:
https://original.antiwar.com/david_stockman/2022/06/27/washingtons-sanctions-war-kneecaps-the-west-not-russia/

"[T]he displacement of Russia energy export sales to newfound homes in India, China and among other developing world buyers has made mincemeat of Washington’s economic punishment strategy. In fact, Russia’s revenues from fossil fuels, by far its biggest export, soared to records in the first 100 days of its war on Ukraine, driven by a windfall from oil sales amid surging prices.
...
[In another development,] 
gold purchases have been mainly by developing nation central banks such as those of India and Turkey, and, of course China. 
All of the latter have been quietly preparing to do what Russia did before the war: 
That is, de-dollarize by allocating capital into the one counterparty-free, seizure-free asset universally esteemed – gold. 
...
At the end of the day, 
<i>Washington has knee-capped western economies and American consumers especially.</i>"

In general 
https://www.antiwar.com/ 
is a good source of, surprise!, antiwar arguments.)